Task #1
Initial data:
The number of employees in the EAN - 85 million people; the number of unemployed - 15 million people. A month later, out of 85 million people who had a job, 0.5 million people were fired and are looking for work; 1 million of the officially registered unemployed have stopped looking for work.
Formulation of the problem:
1. Determine the initial unemployment rate?
2. Determine the number of employees?
3. Determine the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate a month later?
The unemployment rate is determined by the formula:
, - the number of unemployed; - number of economically active population.Substituting the numerical values, we get:
.A month later, out of 85 million people who had a job, 0.5 million people were fired and are looking for work, 1 million people. among the officially registered unemployed have stopped looking for work.
, .The unemployment rate a month later, we determine:
.Task #2
Initial data:
The table presents data on labor resources and employment in the first and fifth years of the period under review (in thousand people).
First year | Fifth year | |
Employed in the EAN | 80500 | 95000 |
Unemployed | 4800 | 7000 |
Formulation of the problem:
1. Calculate the unemployment rate in the first and fifth years of the period under review;
2. Explain the simultaneous increase in employment and unemployment?
Employment Rate = Employed/Employed + Unemployed*100%
Unemployment rate = unemployed / employed + unemployed * 100%
Unemployment rate = 4800/80500+4800*100%=0.06%
Unemployment rate = 7000/95000+7000*100%=0.07%
2action
Employment rate=80500/80500+4800*100%=0.94%
Employment Rate = 95000/95000+7000*100%=0.93%
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed to the total number of registered workers and employees.
Employment growth is the dynamics of GDP, superfluous workers turned out to be in demand at the stage of economic recovery.
Task #3
Initial data:
The table shows data characterizing the volumes of actual and potential GNP (billion rubles). In 1990, the economy developed at full employment with an unemployment rate of 6%.
Formulation of the problem: Using Okun's law, calculate the unemployment rate in 1996 and 1997?
; ; – Okun's ratio=2.5%19961997
3705=38×(100-2.5x+15) 3712.5=4125×(100-2.5x+15)
95x=4370-3705, x=7% 103.125x=4743.75-37.12, x=10%
Where Y- the actual volume of production; Y* potential GDP; And the actual level of unemployment; And* natural rate of unemployment; empirical coefficient of sensitivity of GDP to the dynamics of cyclical unemployment.
In accordance with Okun's law, with a small annual increase in real GNP (not exceeding 2.5%), the unemployment rate remains almost constant, and with a deeper change in GNP, 2% of its changes generate a shift in unemployment in the opposite direction by 1%
GNP is a macroeconomic indicator that represents the value of the final product produced by the country during the year, calculated in market prices.
Often on TV we hear news about an increase or decrease in unemployment in a particular country or city. But does each of us understand what is meant? After all, the real state of affairs can be understood only by correctly realizing the significance of such an indicator as the calculation formula given below will contribute to a better understanding of the issue.
Causes of unemployment
Like it or not, but in any state there is a certain percentage of people who do not have a job at the moment. Even in the richest countries there is unemployment. There are a number of reasons for this.
Any most developed country and economy of the world finds a place for unemployment. Perhaps, only with the idea of capitalism did the Soviet people believe that in the near future everyone would have a job and goods in stores would no longer be sold for money.
Unemployment can be due to a number of reasons. They can be divided into several groups:
Economic;
political;
Social;
Personal.
The economic group of reasons can include those that are associated with the specifics of the development of the economy of a particular region (country). If the production capacity of the state is at zero, the economy is collapsing, enterprises stop, then it is natural that full employment of the population is out of the question. In this case, people simply have nowhere to work.
Political reasons are based on any government measures to regulate a particular sector of the economy. Sometimes politicians, when solving international issues, forget that they influence the lives of citizens within the country. Someone gets a job because of this, and someone loses.
The social group includes the causes of unemployment, independent of the economic or political vector of development. They are more influenced by prestige and fashion. For example, there may be 1,000 vacancies for the position of a cleaner, but because of their beliefs about the possibility of finding a more prestigious and better job, people remain unemployed at the moment.
The personal group of causes includes those that are associated with the individual qualities of people. After all, there are those who do not want to work at all, live on welfare, use alcoholic beverages and drugs, and it is simply impossible to force them to do anything for society in the existing legal field.
To calculate the correct statistics for unemployed people, a special unemployment formula is used. The unemployment rate, which can be calculated using it, determines the degree of unemployment of the economically active population. We will consider it further.
The following should also be noted. You can calculate the unemployment rate in different ways. The calculation formula in each method will be different. But mostly in statistics they use the unemployment rate
It is determined by the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.
The unemployed are part of the labor force that can be employed in the production of goods or services, but for some reason are not involved in these processes.
- friction;
- cyclic;
- structural.
- formation of a reserve of labor force for further restructuring of the structure of the economy;
- competition among workers, serving as a stimulus for the development of their ability to work;
- stimulation of productivity growth and labor intensity;
- a break in employment to improve the level of education and retraining.
- reduction in production
- devaluation of education
- loss of qualification
- government spending to help the unemployed,
- lower living standards and tax revenues,
- underproduction of the national income.
- increasing the social significance of the workplace;
- increased freedom of choice of duty station;
- increase in free time.
- increased tension in society,
- exacerbation of the crime situation in it,
- an increase in the number of mental and physical illnesses,
- decrease in labor activity of people,
- increase in social differentiation.
- creation of employment centers;
- state payments of unemployment benefits;
- creation of new jobs in the country (for example, during the crisis of 2008-2009, the state sent the unemployed to public works).
- formation of a database of vacancies (including in other regions);
- formation of special services, whose function is to collect information about available vacancies.
- create state institutions and services (including those functioning on the basis of employment centers) aimed at advanced training and retraining;
- to help private institutions, as well as small educational centers of this type.
- pursue a stabilization policy, which is aimed at preventing deep recessions in production, and, consequently, mass unemployment;
- create new jobs in the public sector of the economy.
- do not have a job (occupation that generates income);
- engage in job search, i.e. apply to the state (private) employment service, use or place advertisements in the press, directly contact the administration of enterprises (employers), use personal connections or take steps to create their own business;
- be ready to start work during the survey week.
- Structural unemployment, which is the most massive, since its presence is associated with constant changes in market demand for a product (if demand falls, then the need for specialists will decrease). The unemployment rate formula for structural unemployment looks like this:
- Frictional unemployment, which characterizes the unemployment of citizens who have a certain qualification. This type occurs when certain enterprises are closed, the decline in production capacity. The unemployment rate formula for this type is:
- Seasonal unemployment associated with work that is seasonal. Unemployment Rate Formula for Seasonal Unemployment:
- Cyclical unemployment associated with economic cycles that are constantly taking place in different countries. At the time of the decline in GDP, cyclical unemployment begins, which is characterized by the level of unemployed labor due to a temporary reduction in production capacity and their release from the production process. Formula for the cyclical unemployment rate:
Structural.
Friction.
Seasonal.
Structural unemployment
Its calculation formula is as follows:
Be \u003d Bstr + Bfr.
natural unemployment. What does the indicator say?
What does this indicator say? It is calculated when they want to know what the overall unemployment rate will be if the condition of full employment is met.
That is, if everyone who wanted could find a job. Accordingly, it can be seen that the formula of which is given above assumes the presence in the economy of only structural and frictional types of unemployment.
We can say that this indicator shows the situation that has developed in the labor market under ideal conditions, when the entire economically active population is employed in the production of goods or services.
Actual unemployment
Another main indicator is actual unemployment. It is calculated as the sum of all types of unemployment listed above, with the exception of natural. That is, the sum of structural, frictional, seasonal and cyclic - this will be the actual unemployment. The formula looks like this:
Bf \u003d Bstr + Bfr + Bs + Bts.
Actual unemployment essentially reflects the real state of affairs in the labor market. It can be greater than, equal to, or less than the natural rate of unemployment. The calculation formula shows that this indicator affects absolutely all types of unemployment, which means:
The actual level will be higher than natural unemployment if the economy is experiencing a slowdown in development.
The situation will be inversely proportional to the first if the economy picks up pace and jobs appear faster than people are being fired from their old jobs.
In fact, with a full understanding of the causes, types and factors, the unemployment calculation formula helps to give a real assessment of the employment of the population and the work of the government to provide decent jobs.
The unemployment rate has always characterized the state of the economy, and thanks to this indicator, one can draw a conclusion about where to strive further and what needs to be corrected in the economic vector of development.
To the unemployed includes persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who, during the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:
did not have a job (profitable occupation);
engaged in job search, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the organization (employer), used personal connections, etc. or took steps to start their own business;
were ready to start work during the survey week.
Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.
The unemployed registered with state institutions of the employment service include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with the employment service at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start her.
Unemployment rate- the ratio of the number of unemployed of a certain age group to the number of economically active population of the corresponding age group, %.
Unemployment rate formula
Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total labor force.
It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:
31. Types of unemployment
1. Frictional - the unemployed who are between jobs and it is customary to refer to this category: seasonal workers, people who change jobs, people who are looking for work 1 time. Objective unemployment.
2. Structural unemployment - workers who lost their jobs due to the obsolescence of their profession or liquidation: associated with the renewal of production technology and require retraining or advanced training; objective unemployment.
The sum of the two types of unemployment is the natural rate of unemployment.
3. Cyclical unemployment - occurs in the economy at the time of the onset of the economic crisis or decline in production; The crisis starts if General Unemployment Level > Natural Unemployment Level. Periodically appears and disappears. Ur.cycle.bezr \u003d Ur.vol. - Ur eats.
4. Hidden unemployment - the employed population who does not work and receives no wages. Identify species that cannot be counted.
1. Employed who are not full time or weekly.
Employees on forced leave without pay.
2. Hidden unemployed who are officially employed, but at the same time perform types of work with a skill level lower than the qualification that they performed.
FULL EMPLOYMENT - the presence of a sufficient number of jobs to meet the demands for work of the entire working-age population of the country, the practical absence of long-term unemployment, the ability to provide those who wish to work jobs that correspond to their professional orientation, education, and work experience.
32. The main negative factor of unemployment This is an unreleased product. When the economy fails to create enough jobs for all who are willing and able to work, the potential production of goods and services is lost forever.
Unequal burden. Behind the general figures lies the fact that the costs of unemployment are distributed unequally; With an increase in unemployment, the working day and wages of various categories of workers change disproportionately.
First, the unemployment rate among women is higher than among men;
Secondly, the unemployment rate among young people (graduates of schools and universities) is much higher than among adults;
Thirdly, at present in Russia the demand for workers in the age group over 45-50 years is very limited. This means that people in the older age groups are the highest affected by unemployment more than other categories of workers.
Non-economic costs of unemployment. History convincingly shows that mass unemployment leads to rapid, sometimes very turbulent, social and political change. Examples of such changes are Hitler's rise to power amid widespread unemployment and President Roosevelt's New Deal during the Great Depression of the 1930s. For Russia, social tension is especially pronounced in labor-surplus regions, primarily in the Caucasian republics. Crime is growing especially rapidly in conditions of unemployment, the number of suicides, cardiovascular and mental diseases is growing intensively, the number of alcoholics and drug addicts is growing.
A. Oken mathematically expressed the relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag in the volume of GNP. This dependency, known as Okun's law , shows that if the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate by 1%, then the lag in GDP is 2.5%. For example, during the recession (2011) in the United States, the unemployment rate reached 9.5%, or 3.5% above the natural rate, i.e. 6%. Multiplying these 3.5% by the Okun coefficient (2.5), we get that in 2011 the gap in GDP was 8.75%.
It should be noted that the dependence derived by A. Oken is empirical, so it can be used with some caution, since the error for different countries and time periods may be too large.
Okun's law: other things being equal, the excess of the general unemployment rate over its natural rate by 1% leads to a reduction in GDP by 2.5%.
33. Fighting unemployment- a set of measures to reduce unemployment. Methods of combating unemployment are determined by the authorities of a particular country. For the effective implementation of these methods, it is required to identify the factors that determine the ratio of demand and supply of labor. It is obvious that only a factor-oriented policy of influencing the labor market can bring results. Reducing unemployment is an extremely difficult task, as there are many types of it. Therefore, it is impossible to work out a single way to deal with unemployment, and any state has to use different methods to solve this problem. The measures described below are considered in relation to a market economy, but some can be applied within the framework of a command economy or only in it, as will be specially noted.
Today, the problem of unemployment is an acute issue that arises in a market economy. In particular, it is relevant now for Russia. The downturn in the economy has also affected the labor market. The consequences of unemployment are severe enough. In most cases, in relation to the personality, it leads to depression, which, in turn, leads to inactivity. The latter contributes to the loss of self-esteem and qualifications, which entails the decomposition of the individual. The study of the problem of unemployment, as well as the search for ways to solve it, are therefore very topical issues. It is also important to be able to determine unemployment rates. We will talk about all this in detail in this article.
Definition of unemployment and its types
What is unemployment? This is a socio-economic phenomenon due to the fact that a part of the population that is economically active wants and is able to work, but cannot find a job at the same time. This leads to the threat of loss of profession, qualifications, social status, as well as a decrease in living standards. High unemployment is a serious problem for the state. However, as such, it inevitably arises in a market economy, being the result of the interaction between the supply of labor and the demand for it. During periods of economic recession, it increases and decreases during periods of recovery. This is the dynamics of the unemployment rate. However, there are always people who are trying to find a job.
There are three types of unemployment in the modern economy:
frictional unemployment
It is due to the mobility of personnel. It includes people who are actively looking for a job or waiting to get one. The search always requires a certain amount of time. Frictional unemployment is usually voluntary and short-lived, as job seekers in this case have certain skills that can be sold on the labor market. Some people change jobs voluntarily, in order to improve pay and conditions, or quit voluntarily because of disappointment in their chosen profession. Others are fired due to the reorganization of the enterprise, downsizing, etc. This also includes people trying to find a job for the first time (for example, after graduating from an educational institution), who temporarily lost their seasonal job (harvesting, cutting firewood, etc.).
When these people find a place to work, others will appear. A feature of this type of unemployment is the lack of information on vacancies available in a given period. Therefore, there will always be a certain number of persons subject to frictional unemployment. This is inevitable and even considered desirable for the economy. The fact is that some people can move to a higher-paid job from a low-paid job and then strive to stay in a new place. In turn, this leads to the fact that they perform duties more conscientiously. This leads to an improvement in the quality of products, an increase in production volume. Others are convinced that the job they occupy does not meet the requirements, and look for a place with lower pay. Thus, labor resources are distributed more rationally.
How to determine the level of frictional unemployment?
Frictional unemployment rates are determined by the ratio to the labor force of the number of frictional unemployed, expressed as a percentage. They are calculated using the following formula:
u frits \u003d U frits / L * 100%.
Structural unemployment
It is associated with the emergence of new products that replace obsolete ones, as well as with changes in the service market. The sectoral structure of production is also changing. Enterprises are beginning to revise the technology and structure of production, which leads to the need for new personnel. Demand for some professions decreases, increases for others. However, the response to changes in the demand of potential employees is slow. It turns out that some of them do not have the skills needed at this point. The structural unemployed also include people who entered the labor market for the first time, including graduates of secondary specialized and higher educational institutions, whose professions are no longer in demand in the economy.
In addition, unemployment caused by the expansion or change in the geography of production can also be attributed to this type, since in most cases qualified personnel do not have the opportunity to move with their enterprise. And in the new place there may not be trained personnel. The main cause of structural unemployment, therefore, is scientific and technological progress, which changes the nature of demand in society.
Structural unemployment rate
Its level is determined by the percentage ratio of the number of structural unemployed to the labor force. The formula is:
u struct = U struct / L*100%.
Natural rate of unemployment
Both in unfavorable and prosperous periods there is unemployment of structural and frictional types. It's unavoidable. The natural rate of unemployment is the total number of unemployed of these two types as a percentage of the total labor market. It is characteristic of a situation in which macroeconomic equilibrium is observed. Natural unemployment is noted when the number of people employed in the search for a job coincides with the number of vacancies. In other words, there is a job opportunity. This level also presupposes the presence in society of a reserve of labor force, which has the ability to move quickly in the economic sphere, taking up vacant places. The natural rate of unemployment is different for different countries. In particular, for France and the UK it is 5%, for Japan and Sweden - 1.5-2%, 8% - for Canada, 5-6% - for the USA. Economists believe that the average unemployment rate (natural) is 4-6%.
Real unemployment can sometimes be below its natural level, for example, in a situation of war. In the case when the existing unemployment corresponds quantitatively to the natural level, it is considered that the functioning of the economy is carried out in conditions of full employment and there is a full volume of production. In other words, the actual GDP produced in this case is equal to the potential.
Cyclical unemployment
When the number of vacancies becomes less than the number of unemployed, cyclical unemployment occurs. It is caused by a cyclical decline in production. Unemployment levels are cyclical change depending on the situation in the economy. It causes a decline in production, in turn, caused by a phase of the economic cycle (the name of this type of unemployment comes from here), characterized by a decrease in demand for services and goods. This leads to the fact that the staff of the enterprise is significantly reduced. An example is unemployment, which was caused in 2008-2009. world economic crisis. When the economy revives, the cyclical unemployment rate gradually decreases as new vacancies appear.
The first 2 types described above are inevitable and natural. However, cyclical unemployment is a deviation from natural (structural and frictional). It is connected with the fluctuation of activity in the economy. Under it, therefore, you need to understand the difference between natural and actual unemployment.
How to determine the unemployment rate?
The level indicator is the main indicator of the phenomenon under consideration. This is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. At the same time, full employment does not imply the absence of a situation where a part of the workers cannot find an application for their labor. We have determined that the emergence of structural and frictional unemployment is inevitable. Therefore, full employment does not equal 100%. At full employment, unemployment rates can be defined as the sum of structural and frictional unemployment. The formula is:
u full = u Friction + u Struct.
The actual unemployment rate is the sum of the levels of all three types. However, it is easier to find it using the following formula:
u fact = U*100% / L = U*100% / E + U.
Here L is the labor force, U is the number of unemployed, E is the number of employees.
It is possible to determine, knowing the actual unemployment rate, the cyclical unemployment rate. The formula is:
u cycle = u full - u fact.
Consequences of unemployment
Unemployment leads to certain consequences of a non-economic and economic nature. They manifest themselves most often with cyclical unemployment, and with structural unemployment - to a lesser extent. Cyclical unemployment is a consequence of economic instability. It leads to forced underemployment. Structural unemployment crowds out production that is outdated. In the labor market, therefore, there are again involuntary unemployed.
Two types of consequences that unemployment leads to have been identified by economists:
Non-economic;
Economic.
Non-economic are divided into psychological and social. Let us define the most important consequences in terms of their impact on the social and economic situation.
Positive economic impacts include:
A small level of real unemployment, therefore, can contribute to the growth of the economy.
The negative economic consequences are as follows:
Positive social impacts include:
Negative social consequences are:
Economic and social consequences at the individual and societal levels
A serious national problem is the negative economic and social consequences. Economic at the individual level consist in the loss of part of income or all income, in the loss of qualifications, and, consequently, in a decrease in the chances of finding a prestigious, well-paid job in the future. At the level of society, the economic consequences that unemployment has are the underproduction of GNP, its lagging behind the potential actual GNP. The presence of cyclical unemployment means that resources are not fully utilized. Therefore, the actual GNP is less than potential.
At the individual level, the social consequences are that if a person cannot find a job for a long time, then he begins to experience stress, despair, he develops cardiovascular and nervous diseases. It can also lead to family breakdown. In addition, the lack of a stable source of income in some cases pushes a person to commit a crime.
What about at the level of society? The high level of unemployment means, first of all, the growth of social tension in it. Social consequences, in addition, are an increase in mortality in the country and the level of morbidity, as well as crime. In addition, the costs of unemployment are the losses that society incurs in connection with the resulting costs of training, education and providing people with the necessary level of qualification.
The fight against unemployment
Since the phenomenon under consideration is a serious problem of the economy, the state is implementing a number of measures aimed at combating it. The level of potential unemployment is tracked. Different measures are applied for different types of it. However, the following are common to all:
Fighting frictional unemployment
The following measures are used to combat the friction type phenomenon in question:
In addition, it is possible to apply measures aimed at increasing the mobility of the labor force (the formation of an affordable housing market, an increase in construction volumes, changes in legislation to eliminate administrative barriers that arise when moving).
The fight against structural unemployment
Structural unemployment can be dealt with in the following ways:
These institutions should implement advanced training and retraining programs to better prepare the workforce. Retraining in a number of cities is carried out by population support centers, as well as educational institutions.
How to deal with cyclical unemployment?
You can fight it in the following ways:
In addition, the demand for goods should be stimulated, since when it grows, production volumes increase, which contributes to an increase in the labor force.
Measures taken in Russia
At the level of state policy in the Russian economy, a number of non-standard but effective measures have recently been adopted aimed at reducing the unemployment rate in Russia. This is, in particular, early voluntary retirement, which can be carried out two years before the retirement age. According to the government, this contributes to the release of jobs. Consequently, the unemployment rate in Russia is decreasing. The decrease is due to people who are already unemployed at this age. In addition, new jobs are being created through the promotion of small businesses and assistance to individuals who want to start their own business. The state is also obliged to employ young specialists who have graduated from secondary specialized and higher educational institutions if they have a sufficient level of training based on the results of training. It must be understood that only with the simultaneous solution of several tasks can a significant reduction in the unemployment rate as a whole be achieved.
Macroeconomics. Unemployment
In accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployed citizens can include persons at the age that is set to measure the economic activity of the population. These persons must meet the following conditions:
Also, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if these persons have been looking for work and are ready to start it.
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed in the relevant age group to the economically active population (of a certain age group). This indicator is calculated as a percentage.
Unemployment rate formula
The unemployment rate formula is calculated as the ratio of the share of the unemployed to the total labor force (%):
u=U/L * 100%
Here u is the unemployment rate,
U is the number of unemployed,
L is the number of employed and unemployed (labor force)
Types of unemployment
There are several types of unemployment, for each of which the calculation of the unemployment rate formula has its own characteristics:
UBstr \u003d Qstr / HR * 100%
Here UBstr is the level of structural unemployment,
Qstr - the number of structural unemployed;
UBfr \u003d Q / HR * 100%
Here UBfr is the level of frictional unemployment,
Qfr - the number of frictional unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
UBset = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBSec is the seasonal unemployment rate,
Qsez - the number of seasonal unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
UB cycle = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBtsik is the level of cyclical unemployment,
Qcycle is the number of cyclical unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
Other unemployment indicators
In order to carry out a deeper analysis of unemployment, it is not enough to know the methods of calculation for the corresponding types of unemployment.
The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is often used. Unemployment rate formula:
UBest \u003d UB str + UB fr
Here UBest is the natural rate of unemployment,
UB str is the level of structural unemployment,
UBFR is the level of frictional unemployment.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1