The European currency retains good potential for further strengthening, which is reflected in the euro exchange rate forecasts for autumn 2017.
Improvement in macroeconomic dynamics in the euro area has an impact on investor behavior. In addition, the reduction of political uncertainty has a positive effect on the position of the European currency.
Bet on strengthening
During 2017, the European currency strengthened against the dollar by 5.9%, which is turning into a stable trend. Investor preferences are associated with positive election results in European countries, which reduces the risks for the continued existence of the EU. In addition, the recovery of the pace of development of the eurozone economy will allow the ECB to move to curtail the quantitative easing program. At the same time, the dynamics of the US economy in 2017 lags behind analysts' expectations, which negatively affects the positions of the dollar.
Representatives of HSBC emphasize the change in investor sentiment regarding the US currency. If previously speculators preferred to bet on a strong dollar, then the lack of real reforms announced by Donald Trump was reflected in the outflow of capital in favor of the euro. As a result, the quotes of the European currency have overcome the mark of 1.11 USD/EUR and will continue moving towards the line of 1.15.
Analysts at Barclays are also counting on the gradual strengthening of the European currency. American banks recovered more quickly from the 2008 crisis, which led to the strengthening of the dollar in previous periods. However, the growth of uncertainty for the US economy in 2017 will contribute to the weakening of the dollar in the medium term.
In 2017, the ECB will be able to move to reduce the volume of purchases of financial assets aimed at stimulating economic development. Despite keeping the rate at zero, the curtailment of the quantitative easing policy will strengthen the position of the euro in the short term. At the same time, the growth of the Fed's key rate will lag behind analysts' expectations, which will play against the dollar.
The negative factor for the euro is the lack of consensus with the UK on the final terms of Brexit. Foggy Albion and the EU cannot agree on the final amount of compensation, as well as the further format of trade relations and migration policy. As a result, the eurozone economy may suffer additional losses, which is reflected in the activity of investors.
In the fall of 2017, the euro against the ruble will also go up, analysts predict. At the same time, the scale of changes in currency quotes will depend on the volatility of the oil market.
Euro against ruble
In the fall of this year, the euro will continue to strengthen its position against the ruble, experts predict. Against the background of the positive dynamics of the European currency, the change in the value of the ruble will be caused by price fluctuations in the oil market.
Despite the agreed measures by OPEC aimed at limiting oil production, oil prices will not be able to overcome the bar of $50 per barrel. Volumes of oil consumption are growing at insufficient rates to level the existing surpluses. At the same time, exporters that have not joined the agreement continue to increase the volume of supplies of "black gold", which maintains the existing imbalances. First of all, oil prices remain under pressure as a result of the growth of shale oil production in the United States.
In addition to oil, the ruble's position is being negatively affected by Western sanctions and the decline in the attractiveness of domestic assets. The outflow of speculative capital as a result of the reduction of the Central Bank's rate will reduce the value of the ruble in the short term. In addition, the domestic budget deficit remains high, forcing the government to look for additional sources to finance existing spending. A moderate weakening of the ruble will increase the revenue side of the state treasury from energy exports, which will make it easier for the government to meet budget targets.
Elena Pazina
Updated: 2019.06.13
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The exchange rate is determined by market factors and depends on the ratio of demand for the currency and its supply. We studied the opinions of experts on the dynamics of the value of the euro, considered the forecast for the euro for 2019, presented by Russian and foreign financial analysts.
Factors that influence the fluctuation of the exchange rate are divided into predictable and unpredictable.
Unpredictable - those events and circumstances that occurred suddenly, and their occurrence was impossible to predict: wars, disasters, the imposition of sanctions.
Predictable ones are those whose behavior can be planned or taken into account in the forecast: oil and gasoline prices, the economic situation in the country. For example, the higher the price of oil, the stronger the position of the Russian ruble is strengthened, and its exchange rate is growing.
The ratio of the EUR/RUB currency pair also depends on the dollar exchange rate. When the dollar rises, the euro rises, and when it falls, it falls.
Due to the sanctions uncertainty and external political instability, experts predict fluctuations in the positions of the ruble against the euro. The increase will alternate with the decrease. And it is difficult to give an accurate forecast of how much the euro will cost by the end of the year.
Euro exchange rate dynamics
Euro rates for 2010-2019 are shown in the chart.
Let's take a closer look at how the euro exchange rate changed over the last year and three months of 2019.
date | Euro exchange rate against the Russian ruble |
01.01.2018 | 68,8668 |
01.02.2018 | 69,9322 |
01.03.2018 | 68,9062 |
01.04.2018 | 70,5618 |
01.05.2018 | 75,2056 |
01.06.2018 | 72,5806 |
01.07.2018 | 72,9921 |
01.08.2018 | 73,0738 |
01.09.2018 | 79,4966 |
01.10.2018 | 76,2294 |
01.11.2018 | 74,4189 |
01.12.2018 | 75,7484 |
01.01.2019 | 79,4605 |
01.02.2019 | 75,2006 |
01.03.2019 | 74,9691 |
In 2018, the exchange rate fluctuated. In general, as of 01/01/2019, there was an increase in the exchange rate compared to the data as of 01/01/2018. However, during the year the exchange rate was unstable. Growth turned into decline. In September, the highest rate was observed - 79.4966, and then its fall began again.
Opinion of financial analysts
Financial analysts express different points of view as to what lies ahead for the euro. However, all experts agree that the euro will rise in price by the end of 2019.
Euro exchange rate forecast from the Central Bank
Financial specialists of the Central Bank predict the instability of the EUR/RUB pair. This is due to the instability in the global political situation. If relations between Russia and the European Union worsen, the price of the euro may exceed 90 rubles.
In part, we are seeing this in the first quarter of 2019. The ruble then strengthens in the auction, then falls. The depreciation of the ruble and the appreciation of the euro at the end of the 1st quarter of 2019 are associated with the end of the tax period, as well as with an increase in the unstable external background.
Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development
The opinion of the experts of the Ministry of Economic Development is somewhat different from the opinion of the Central Bank. When considering whether the euro will rise in price, the ministry also predicts an appreciation of the currency, but more gradual. This will be facilitated by improved relations between the US and Russia and a relatively stable situation in Europe.
Monthly euro exchange rate forecast from Sberbank experts
Sberbank specialists provide a monthly exchange rate forecast.
Here is the latest forecast.
According to Sberbank experts, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate during 2019. In the summer, an increase in the exchange rate is predicted, in August-September - its slight fall, and by the end of the year - an increase again. However, sharp jumps are not expected. At the end of the year, the projected euro exchange rate will slightly exceed 73 rubles per 1 euro.
Forecasts of foreign experts
To the question whether the euro will rise, foreign experts answer unequivocally: the euro will grow. However, a sharper jump in the exchange rate is predicted by the end of the year.
Foreign experts from Walletinvestor made their forecast using a technical analysis of currency pairs in Forex.
Month | Rate at the beginning of the month | Rate at the end of the month | Minimum possible course | Maximum possible exchange rate | Change |
May 2019 | 72,8059 | 72,6006 | 72,2725 | 72,8059 | -0.28%▼ |
June 2019 | 72,6607 | 73,4619 | 72,6607 | 73,5369 | 1.09% ▲ |
July 2019 | 73,4897 | 74,5695 | 73,4777 | 74,5695 | 1.45% ▲ |
August 2019 | 74,6224 | 76,305 | 74,6224 | 76,3108 | 2.21% ▲ |
September 2019 | 76,2926 | 76,1886 | 76,1886 | 76,4712 | -0.14%▼ |
October 2019 | 76,1687 | 75,9504 | 75,5052 | 76,1687 | -0.29%▼ |
November 2019 | 75,9935 | 76,9702 | 75,9935 | 76,9702 | 1.27% ▲ |
December 2019 | 77,0502 | 78,5606 | 77,0502 | 78,5641 | 1.92% ▲ |
In order not to lose savings and not fall into a debt hole, experts advise:
- do not issue a foreign currency mortgage. Although the rates on these loans are lower than on loans in rubles, the projected growth in the exchange rate may significantly affect the family budget;
- it is better to invest money in precious metals or real estate;
- if you keep funds in foreign currency, then form a currency basket: keep funds in several types of foreign currencies.
Exchange rate stabilization measures
The government, together with the Central Bank, is developing a set of measures to regulate the exchange rate of the national currency.
The main goal of the Bank of Russia is the development and implementation of a set of measures to ensure the stability of the ruble.
Measures that are used to strengthen the course:
- maintaining price stability in the country and reducing inflation;
- an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves through the use of excess profits from the sale of oil;
- import substitution of goods and services;
- planning the state budget and reducing its expenditure side;
- experts also advise not to buy currency on weekends and holidays. This is due to the fact that, in anticipation of new trades, banks increase rates in order to reduce risks in the event of sharp currency fluctuations.
Thus, it is quite difficult to predict the behavior of the EUR/RUB currency pair. It is necessary to take into account both known factors and the likelihood of unexpected components. The opinions of experts on the behavior of the euro exchange rate differ, but for the most part they agree that its exchange rate will increase by the end of 2019.
Today I decided to tell you the latest euro forecast for 2017. Currently, the economy of the Russian Federation is going through hard times, the financial situation of the state is very unstable.
The country's solvency largely depends on market conditions, or rather on the price of black gold. And as we all know, the price of oil has been at a low point lately. It is for this reason that the Russian economy is not in the most advantageous position. European sanctions also had a negative impact on the state's economy.
The economic state of the state can improve only if the internal / external situation normalizes, the price of oil rises, which will accordingly lead to an appreciation of the Russian ruble. And if the sanctions are lifted, then it will still significantly improve the economy of the state.
Over the past two years, there has been a sharp depreciation of the ruble, which, in turn, has caused unrest among domestic citizens. Today, almost all domestic citizens are interested in the exchange rate, including the euro exchange rate forecast for 2017.
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 from the Central Bank
The leadership of the Central Bank said that in the near future we can expect a slight depreciation of the national currency, respectively, the euro will grow against the ruble. But after Brexit, a steadily downward trend was born on the euro/dollar pair, that is, the euro has been depreciating against the dollar for half a year.
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Let me remind you that many experts predicted the depreciation of the euro, regardless of the decision of the referendum, which actually happened.
The euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 suggests that euro quotes will fall in the future. So, next year the euro/dollar pair will be dominated by a downtrend.
So, the euro will become cheaper in the future, but in order to determine the future ratio of the euro to the ruble, it is worth knowing what will happen to the ruble in 2017. Unfortunately, a sharp improvement in the situation is not expected in the Russian Federation in the near future. Many analysts suggest that next year the national currency will continue its downward trend.
What is the best way to store currency in 2017
Due to the fact that next year the domestic currency is getting a little cheaper, many citizens of the Russian Federation are wondering where to keep their savings in 2017. If you cannot choose what is better to buy: dollars or euros, then experienced financiers advise buying dollars.
I want to note that the quotes of the euro against the ruble are influenced by the quotes of the euro/dollar pair. Bank Credit Suisse, which is located in Switzerland, assures that in 2017 the value of the dollar and the euro will equalize. Even if they are not quoted 1:1, the price of the dollar will significantly approach the value of the euro.
The opinion of the employees of the Morgan Stanley organization is somewhat different from the one presented above, they suggest that in 2017 the value of the EU currency will be 90 rubles. You should not blindly trust their forecasts, as they often make mistakes and change their forecasts.
Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development assure that the increase in oil prices can lead to the stabilization of the Russian economy. And if oil stays at $40, then the government will have to cut budget spending.
Some experts suggest that the government will not be able to cut spending, which will soon lead to a sharp collapse of the ruble. China is actively trading with Russia. If in the future the PRC does not improve its position, then this will further reduce the cost of black gold, which will accordingly lead to a depreciation of the ruble.
In order to improve the situation in the Reserve Fund, you can take the following measures:
- Reduce costs.
- Use funds from the Welfare Fund.
- Activate issuance financing.
Experienced specialists consider the use of the second paragraph inappropriate, as this will increase the debt. The best option is to reduce costs. So the leadership of the Russian Federation plans to cut costs by 3 trillion rubles in 2017. It is not yet clear what measures will be taken to achieve this.
The most accurate forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2017
You can see the euro forecast for 2017 in Russia below.
January 2017
At the beginning of the new year, the euro will cost 73.4. The maximum value of the exchange rate in January 2017 is 73.4, and the minimum is 70.5. The average value for the month is 72.2.
February 2017
In the first days of February, the value of the European currency will be 71.6. The maximum value of the exchange rate in February 2017 will be 74.4, and the minimum 71.5. The average for the entire month is 72.74.
At the beginning of March 2017, the price of the European currency will be 73.3. The maximum exchange rate will be 73.3 and the minimum 70.4. The average value in the month of March is 72.1.
April 2017
At the beginning of April 2017, the euro will cost 71.5. The rate limit will be 71.6 and the minimum 69.5. The average value will be in the region of 70.6.
At the beginning of May 2017, the euro will cost 70.6. The maximum price will be 70.7 and the minimum price will be 68.6. The average price of the EU currency will be 69.9.
In June 2017, the euro will cost 69.6. The maximum price in June 2017 will be 69.6, and the minimum will be 66.9. The average value of quotations in June is 68.5.
In July, the European currency will cost 67.9. The maximum exchange rate in July 2017 will be 68.99, and the minimum 66.95. The average value of the quotes of the European currency will be located in the region of 67.97.
August 2017
In August, the European currency will cost 67.97. The maximum rate in August 2017 will be 70.7, and the minimum 67.9. The average value of the price will be around 69.05.
September 2017
This month the European currency will cost 69.7. The maximum rate in September 2017 will be 72.5, and the minimum 69.7. The average cost in September will be 70.8.
October 2017
This month the price is 71.4 euros. The limit quotes will be 72.08, and the minimum 69.95. The average cost in October will be 71.5.
November 2017
At the beginning of November 2017, the euro will cost 71. The maximum exchange rate in November 2017 will be 71, and the minimum 67.2. The average cost in November will be 68.9.
December 2017
At the beginning of December 2017, the euro will cost 69.3. Limit quotes will be around 71.7, and minimum 69.3. The average value of the cost in the month of December will be 70.2.
Similarly to the exchange rate, the euro exchange rate during August, having reached a peak on the 4th (then the single European currency almost broke through the mark of 72 rubles), is on a downtrend. The strengthening of the ruble affects both the dollar exchange rate in Russia and the euro exchange rate to the same extent. The situation that was observed in July, when the euro strengthened against the dollar at the same or faster pace as the ruble, does not yet exist. The euro has reached some balance against the dollar, and their cross rate is now teetering just below 1.18. Let's figure out what experts think about the possible euro exchange rate in September.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from August 21
On the eve of the last ten days of August, analysts proceed from the fact that the ruble exchange rate against the euro in the course of September will experience a certain volatility, which will lead to some depreciation at the end of the month. At least, this is the picture so far drawn to us by experts from the APEKON analytical agency from Moscow, who are not afraid to make accurate forecasts of exchange rates and other economic indicators.
Turning to such forecasts, you need to understand that they cannot be absolutely accurate. Experts, offering their vision of the future, proceed from those factors that exist now and may be important in the period being described, as well as from some factors that can be more or less predicted. For example, the volume of purchases of the Russian ruble by Russian companies on the eve of the next tax payment period.
Analysts are naturally mistaken when something interferes with the complex interweaving of external factors that affect exchange rates, the price of oil and other indicators, which could not be foreseen or it was impossible to reliably estimate the effect of some event, even if it was expected. News from the field of politics, especially international, natural or man-made disasters, etc., all this can dramatically change the situation on the stock exchanges.
So, back to the possible euro exchange rate in September. The forecast for the euro exchange rate for September 2017, proposed by the experts of the aforementioned APEKON, for August 21 is as follows:
- By September 1, the euro may fall to 67.87 rubles.
- By September 10, the single European currency will experience a slight final correction - 67.46 rubles.
- Until September 20, the euro will noticeably rise in price and its rate will be equal to approximately 69.63 rubles.
- By October, the euro may fall again to 66.66 rubles.
Thus, so far, experts predict a significant rally for the euro in September, which will end with the final strengthening of the ruble against the European currency by about 1.8%. Most likely, closer to the beginning of the month, these forecasts will be slightly adjusted, so we will turn to them again. The article will be updated.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from August 30
Toward the beginning of September, the APEKON experts' forecast for the euro exchange rate in Russia was slightly adjusted, including taking into account the growth of the euro/dollar cross-rate. The latest forecast of the agency's analysts is as follows:
- On September 1, the euro will cost approximately 68.81 rubles.
- By September 10, the European currency will rise in price by half the ruble - up to 69.30 rubles.
- By September 20, we should expect the depreciation of the euro to 68.47 rubles.
- At the end of the month, the euro will cost about 68.41 rubles.
Thus, if from
Summer for the ruble ends not in the best way. If in June 1 euro could be bought for 63.5 rubles, then in August the rate reached 72 rubles. In terms of the dollar, the same figures were 56.5 and 60.7 rubles, respectively. Respected experts gave their forecast for autumn.
Analyst of BCS Financial Group Ivan Kopeikin
September will be one of the most difficult months for the ruble, as Russian companies will have to pay off foreign debts totaling $9 billion. Less was paid in June-July.
The following external factors are also expected to impact in autumn:
- Meetings of the ECB and the Fed will be held, at which decisions may be made on the gradual tightening of monetary policy. The European Central Bank and the Fed are going to improve the attractiveness of their currencies, which may play against the ruble, especially given the policy of the Bank of Russia aimed at reducing the key rate.
- Problems with US tax and infrastructure reforms are still relevant. It is not yet clear how much of Trump's campaign promises will be kept. If the reforms continue to slip, the dollar may come under increased pressure, which will help the ruble feel more confident against the US currency.
So, the forecast for the end of autumn is as follows: 61.5 rubles/dollar and 72 rubles/euro.
Investment Analyst at Global FX Sergey Kostenko
Among the positive trends for the ruble, one can single out oil prices above $50 per barrel and active sales by the RF Ministry of Finance. The latter is partly due to the large difference between the refinancing rate (9%) and (4%). This situation contributes to the demand for debt securities among non-residents.
There are more negative factors:
- Deterioration of trade balance of the Russian Federation in the second quarter
- Growing geopolitical tensions. The instability associated with the North Korean crisis has a negative impact on the volume of purchases of currencies in developing countries.
- Expanding US sanctions.
- Reducing the Fed's balance sheet. The support that the Fed is going to provide to the dollar will lead to an outflow of capital from foreign investors from the Russian market.
Most likely, the negative factors will overpower the positive ones, and the ruble will continue to depreciate. We should expect upward dynamics of the dollar / ruble pair in the last days of August. At the end of the tax period, the exchange rate will return to 60 rubles/dollar, and the weakening of the ruble will continue in the future.
Forecast: 65 rubles/dollar and 75 rubles/euro.
AMarkets Lead Analyst Artem Deev
The ongoing US sanctions pressure restricts the inflow of speculative foreign capital into the Russian Federation and prevents the ruble from strengthening. In autumn, there will be even more reasons for concern. Investors are already adjusting their policies in connection with the planned increase in rates in Europe and the Fed's plans to strengthen the dollar.
Oil prices can also play a negative role. The other day, the Kuwaiti authorities announced a possible change in OPEC's policy to limit oil production. This issue will be considered at the meeting of exporting countries in November. Yes, and Russia may not want to adhere to restrictions on oil production after the first quarter of 2018. The oil market is still oversaturated, and a barrel is at risk of falling below $45.
According to the forecast for the end of autumn Deev fully agree with Kostenko.
Head of Private Solutions Singapore Castle Family office Stanislav Werner
The Fed is expected to start cutting its balance sheet in September. After that, the dollar will strengthen and there will be an outflow of funds from developing countries. So far, the ruble is showing stability on expectations of the resumption of the CBR rate cut cycle at a meeting to be held on September 15. For the last 3 weeks, consumer prices have been falling, which makes it possible to predict a reduction in the key rate by 0.5% at once.
In addition, two factors are now playing into the hands of the ruble: the tax period and acceptable oil prices. Therefore, the beginning of September for the domestic currency will be positive: the dollar may fall in price by 0.5-1 ruble.
But then it will be more difficult. Oil prices are now holding up thanks to the automobile season in the United States and the promise of the Saudi Arabian authorities to reduce oil sales in September. In the future, the dollar may strengthen, which will lead to an outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation. As a result, the stability of the ruble will weaken, and the exchange rate will turn in the opposite direction.