The war in Syria has entered its 7th year. Economic losses are estimated at $226 billion. According to a World Bank report released in 2017, about 530,000 jobs have been lost and the wave of refugees has exceeded 5 million.
The oil industry has always been the backbone of the countries of the Middle East. The reason for this fact is simple - the region is rich in oil and gas. Syria is no exception. Although it is not a major oil exporter, "black gold" plays an important role in the Syrian economy. In 2010, Syria's oil industry generated 25% of state budget revenues. In the same year, Syria's oil production was 385,000 barrels per day. Natural gas production amounted to 5.3 billion cubic meters. Syrian energy reserves may not be relevant to global energy markets, but they are vital to the domestic economy.
Where are the large oil reserves in Syria
The largest oil reserves are mainly located in the eastern part of the country. The largest oil field is Al Omar, near the city of Deir Ezzor. The region, rich in oil, is located on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. Overcoming the defeat of ISIS (banned in Russia) in Eastern Syria, Al-Omar oil fields fell under the control of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).
Other large fields, such as the Sweidiyeh oil field, are located in the northeastern part of the country, close to the Iraqi border. They are also under the jurisdiction of the Syrian Kurds, although the Syrian state still plays a vital economic role in exploiting and maintaining the deposits. There are also smaller oil reserves, mainly in Central Syria.
Oil wells and associated infrastructure such as pipelines, pumping stations and refineries are of strategic importance, comparable in importance to military bases and other key installations of a similar type. ISIS survived for years thanks to the fact that at some point they controlled almost all of the energy fields in Syria. This allowed the group to make huge profits from illegal sales of oil and gas.
Despite the relatively low level of oil resources, Syria is rich in natural gas reserves. The largest gas fields are mainly located in the central and eastern parts of the country, one of which is located south of Raqqa and the other around Palmyra. Pipelines are also an important element of the strategic energy infrastructure. The Arab Gas Pipeline, completed in 2003, supplies natural gas from Egypt to Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Its length is 1200 km, and the maximum capacity is estimated at 10.3 billion cubic meters. Terrorist attacks on the pipeline infrastructure have proved to be unworkable to some extent, so today the pipeline is not operating at full capacity.
Kirkuk-Banias is another pipeline that is currently failing. It was built in 1952 and transported crude oil from the Iraqi city of Kirkuk to the Syrian port of Banias. The total length is 800 km, and its capacity is relatively small - 300,000 barrels per day. This pipeline has been severely damaged since 2003 and is currently out of service. However, the pumping stations and the Syrian route are used as logistics hubs for processing and transporting gas. Pumping stations T2, T3 and T4 supply gas from Deir Ezzor to Syrian port cities.
The Syrian state is directly involved in the management of many oil companies throughout the country. The Syrian Oil Company (SPC) owns a 50% stake in many regional companies. This is the case with the largest foreign consortium operating in Syria, Al-Furat, where SPC owns a 50% stake in the company. The remaining 50% is shared between Royal Dutch Shell, China National Petroleum Corporation and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation. Prior to the civil war, SPC accounted for 55% of Syria's total oil production. In the summer of 2011, the SPC was sanctioned by the United States.
Many Western companies have been involved in various types of economic partnerships with Syria. A good example was the contract that was signed back in 2008 between the French Total and the Syrian Oil Company. Agreements signed in September 2008 included investments in oil and gas fields in Deir Ezzor. Total has been operating in Syria since 1988. But in December 2011, just a few months after the start of the war, Total withdrew from the country.
Many gas fields and oil wells have been returned to state control after successful military operations by the Syrian army and its allies. Facilities such as the Gayan Gas Company and the Tuveinan gas fields have been restored and put into operation. These developments will allow the Syrian government to put more emphasis on rebuilding and rebuilding the economy. Of course, Syria cannot cover all the costs on its own, so its main allies must start playing. Russia, Iran and China have expressed interest and are ready to invest in key sectors such as energy, agriculture, military, telecommunications and industry.
Syria and Russia already signed an energy cooperation agreement in early February 2018. The roadmap includes deeper cooperation on a number of key energy projects, such as the reconstruction of the damaged Aleppo Thermal Power Plant (which has become inoperable after being taken over by ISIS) and the expansion of other power plants across the country.
Iran is also involved in reconstruction projects. Iranian companies are determined to restore the Syrian energy system, oil refineries and telecommunications systems. These preparations are already being discussed since an Iranian parliamentary delegation visited Syria earlier in the year.
China also wants to play an important role in rebuilding the Syrian economy. Beijing's ambitious plans to create a new trade route to Europe are known as the One Belt One Road or the New Silk Road. This modern "Silk Road" intends to link China, the Middle East and Europe, thereby reshaping economic cooperation between continents. The New Silk Road passes directly through Syria. Chinese investors have already announced their intention to invest in post-war Syria. Large construction companies are preparing to take part in the restoration process. Back in October 2017, China's state-run Xinhua news agency confirmed that the Chinese administration was considering participating in the economic reconstruction of the war-ravaged country.
In today's economy, especially in the industrial sector, the transfer of technology and knowledge is important. Therefore, Syria will rely on foreign direct investment. This is a big responsibility for the Syrian government and politicians. Skilled economic diplomacy is mandatory for the Syrian state and will allow it to sign mutually beneficial contracts with foreign companies and investors. Regional and geopolitical interests further complicate the situation, but the responsibility of the Syrian government remains significant.
FOURTEEN oil and gas basins have been found in Syrian territorial waters, the details of which have been kept secret until now. Exploratory drilling was carried out by the Norwegian company "Ancis".
On April 1, 2013, Dr. Shuajbi said in the program "Dialogue of Time" on the TV channel "Al Majjaddin": "In the course of geological research conducted by the Norwegian company Ancis, 14 oil fields were discovered in the territorial waters off the coast of Syria."
Shuazhbi also said that below the horizon of these 14 fields, there are four more oil fields that stretch from the Lebanese border to the Syrian city of Banias. Thus, the estimated volumes of oil are such that the volume of oil production in Syria can be compared with the current oil production in Kuwait. Four other oil fields, which also extend under the territory of Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel, are approximately comparable in size to those mentioned above.
Newly discovered Syrian oil fields
As he explained, thanks to the discovered deposits, Syria could break into fourth place in the world. And the volume of oil that Syria can produce per day will reach 6-7 million barrels per day (for comparison, Saudi Arabia produces 12 million barrels per day).
Shuajbi said that large undeveloped reserves of natural gas have also been discovered in Syria. These deposits are located on the territory of the Kara region. When asked if it would be beneficial to have such energy resources at the disposal of a politically very volatile region, Dr. Shuajbi replied that these oil reserves have now become a real "curse" for Syria.
Thus, Syria has become a strategic location not only for the Middle East, but for the whole world. As Dr. Shuazhbi emphasized, it is because of this that the “undeclared war” against Syria and the “war over natural gas and pipelines” arose.
And the one who started this war against Syria plans to then stretch the gas pipeline across the entire territory of "ravaged" Syria from Qatar to Europe. As the expert noted, gas from Qatar is closer to Europe than gas from Russia. Therefore, when pipelines are laid through the territory of Syria, natural gas from Qatar will cost Europe less than natural gas from Russia.
It should also be added that the secret results of oil exploration in Syria were sold by the Norwegians to an international oil company, or rather to the CGS concern and the American business group VERITAS. The group conducted additional exploration in Syria in 2010 and is believed to have discovered several more new oil and gas fields. However, VERITAS does not disclose this information.
Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor For the fourth year now, it has been in a state of almost complete blockade. Overland communication with a hard-fought enclave that is besieged by militantsIslamic State*(a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) is carried out exclusively by air.
However, the successful offensive of the Syrian and allied troops, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, against the positions of IS * in the provinces neighboring Deir ez-Zor, puts on the agenda the issue of the speedy deblockade of the city and the liberation of the province of the same name, which before the war was a major center of Syrian oil production.
The beginning of the war: the loss of large Syrian oil
Before the start of the civil war in Syria, the province of Deir ez-Zor was the center of oil production and oil refining of the country. Its strategic importance was determined by several factors at once: several large oil fields were located around Deir ez-Zor, a large oil refinery was located in the province, and a main pipeline ran along the Euphrates from south to north, supplying Syrian oil, as well as fuel from the countries of the Persian Gulf. , neighboring Turkey.
Almost all of this infrastructure, with the outbreak of the civil war, first fell into the hands of disparate terrorist groups, and then, in 2014, came under the control of the then-created Islamic State. The latter established iron control over the oil industry and at the same time locked Deir ez-Zor in a tight blockade ring.
The city itself, neither then nor subsequently, the militants failed to take. Two factors influenced this. Firstly, a large Syrian air base and a powerful garrison of government troops were located in the city. Secondly, there were strong religious and ethnic communities in Deir ez-Zor, primarily Christian and Armenian, which by no means supported the ideas of radical Islam, characteristic of the IS ideological platform.
As a result, the Islamic State limited itself to a tight blockade and constant siege of Deir ez-Zor, securing control of the oil fields and oil revenues. It cannot be said, however, that before the war the state of Syrian oil production was unequivocally “rosy”: Syrian fields were already largely depleted, and most of the country's oil industry was in a state of stagnation. The peak of oil production in Syria passed back in 2008, when all fields in the country produced 346,000 barrels of oil per day.
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Of course, the seizure of deposits by the militants did not at all contribute to the growth in production - a significant part of the equipment was disabled, and many valuable specialists preferred to escape from the power of the terrorists, taking with them important documentation. However, the province of Deir ez-Zor and adjacent parts of the provinces of Homs, Raqqa and Hasakah became the basis of the oil business of the Islamic State.
Under IS control: how important is oil for terrorists?
The phenomenon of the "terrorist state", the first - and, I would like to believe, the last - an example of which was the IS group, has yet to be studied by historians, military and sociologists. Until now, the "inner kitchen" of the creation of the "Islamic State" is largely unclear - the total control of the militants affects both the population that has fallen into the territory of the IS, and over the flows of confidential information that reveals the specifics of the economy of the quasi-state entity.
One thing is clear already now - for three whole years (2014-17) a powerful terrorist group existed in Syria and Iraq, which was able to build, albeit a predatory cave, but a workable economic model, sufficient to finance a regular army and independent of external influence. And the oil of Deir ez-Zor turned out to be one of the key "building blocks" of the economy of such a terrorist quasi-state.
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The world received most of the information about the oil economy of the "Islamic State" as a result of the successful elimination of one of the leaders of the ISIS, Abu Sayyaf, who was killed on May 16, 2015 by American special forces. In the structure of the Islamic State, Abu Sayyaf served as the coordinator of activities for the extraction and trade of all natural and industrial resources from the territories controlled by the Islamic State. In his personal files, reports were found on the trade in oil, grain, electricity, phosphates and other liquid goods that IS requisitioned from the population or industrial enterprises under its control.
Along with the body of the liquidated Abu Sayyaf, his personal computer was seized and, more importantly, his wife Umm Sayyaf, who was also his personal assistant. Subsequently, the trade data of the "ISIS minister" and the testimony of his wife formed the basis of publications that assessed the resource potential of the Islamic State's economy.
Oddly enough, oil was by no means the only resource at the disposal of ISIS. Thus, about $200 million a year, the Islamic State received from the sale of grain from the agricultural northern and western provinces of Syria. However, "black gold" was, of course, the "backbone" of the terrorist economy.
According to the most conservative estimates, in 2015 the Islamic State received about $900 million annually from the oil trade. This corresponded to a production level of 80,000 barrels of oil per day - not much, by the standards of large oil-producing countries, lower than the production of Syria itself before the war - but extremely high for a “terrorist state”.
Based on the chronological data of Abu Sayyaf, the dynamics of production and sale of oil by ISIS was built, which showed the obvious: oil production under the “control” of terrorists is slowly degrading, and primarily due to the lack of key specialists, loss of documentation, a catastrophic drop in the technological culture of production and the complete absence of even the minimum level of repair and maintenance work on the equipment. In fact, the entire oil industry in Syria and Iraq has been derailed for the sake of short-term profits from the quick sale of oil.
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Oil fields near Deir ez-Zor itself, according to the above estimates, turned out to be in the most intact condition. Thus, only two fields: al-Tanak, which produced, according to estimates for 2016, 16,000 barrels of oil per day, and al-Omar, which produced 11,000 barrels per day, provided about 60% of all oil revenues of the Islamic State. In general, Syrian oil fields accounted for 70% of IS's oil revenues, leaving only 30% to neighboring Iraq.
Syria: a new alignment
The current status of oil production in the province of Deir ez-Zor under the control of the "Islamic state" is unknown. Apparently, the degradation of the industry continued in 2017 at no less pace than it happened in previous years. It is possible that the already totally destroyed infrastructure will have to be freed from terrorists. Even in the most optimistic version of Syria, one can count on no more than 30-40 thousand barrels of oil per day, which can be produced in the initial period of the province's fields.
Of course, this figure looks low even against the background of the pre-war level of production, and from the peak of Syrian oil production in 2008, it is only 10-15%. But, on the other hand, this kind of increase in the budget of a country exhausted by the war (and we can talk about $400-450 million a year at the first stage with the correct and legal organization of oil production and trade) will not be superfluous.
Further restoration of oil production and oil refining may even become the basis for the revival of the Syrian economy. After all, the oil of Deir ez-Zor still lies under the sands of the Syrian desert, and the atrocities of the terrorists only destroyed and depleted what is on the surface - and must be restored as soon as possible.
However, "big politics" can interfere with such optimistic plans. Today, Deir ez-Zor is not only a key point for eliminating the predatory terrorist economy of the Islamic State, but also a place where geopolitical interests intersect. In fact, before our eyes, Syria is being divided into future zones of influence, which, under the most optimistic scenario, will be further formalized in the form of some kind of self-governing “federal territories”, each of which will lead its own economic and even political agenda, largely focusing on external centers of power.
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We are now quite casually observing the end of this kind of scenario in Iraqi Kurdistan, which, in addition to the acquired economic independence from Baghdad, will soon raise the question of the broadest political autonomy, much more similar to independence than to some kind of “federal structure” of the country.
The situation with Deir ez-Zor is complicated by the fact that in the area of this strategic point in eastern Syria, the interests of three external centers of power intersect at once - the United States, Iran and the Persian Gulf monarchies, for each of which the territory itself and its “closing” are critically important , transit potential. None of these players' scenarios take into account the fate of Syria itself. For the United States, Deir ez-Zor is a “castle” for Iranian expansion, for Iran it is part of the “Shiite bridge” to Lebanon, and for the Persian Gulf monarchies it is a transport corridor to Turkey and the Mediterranean.
Therefore, in the interests of Syria itself, it is indispensable to maintain control over Deir ez-Zor and the speedy liberation of the province by troops controlled by Damascus. Otherwise, the fate of Syria will be decided in Tehran, Washington or Riyadh, but not in the Syrian capital.
* The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation.
+ Original taken from psyont V
Original taken from gorlanovig V The civil war in the province of Idlib (Syria) flares up brighter
5,000 pro-Turkish fighters will enter Idlib
In the province of Idlib, violent clashes broke out between various Islamist factions.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance that includes the Syrian al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra, attacked the positions and headquarters of Ahrar al-Sham, an Islamist movement considered more “moderate”.
Skirmishes have been going on since Tuesday and Ahrar al-Sham blames HTS for everything.
On Wednesday, fighting spread to Sarakib in the east, Dana and Sarmada in the northeast, and Bab el-Hawa near the Turkish border. There are also reports of clashes in Idlib itself.
It is reported on social networks that 5,000 Turkish-trained Syrian Free Army fighters will be transferred to Idlib to support Ahrar al-Sham. In any case, we are most likely talking about the beginning of a civil war between jihadist factions in Idlib.
+ Original taken from yurasumy V Syria: operation "big pot" for ISIS
The past week in Syria has been very dynamic. The Syrian army was advancing and very successfully. Moreover, the latest operation of the "tigers" leads to the conclusion that Bashar al-Assad has much more forces today than was assumed a few weeks ago. Where did they come from?
+ Original taken from awas1952 V There is still a lot of progress to be made - but already without excessive interference
In the coming two weeks, the Russian military is preparing missile launches off the coast of Syria. This follows from data from the International Notice to Aviation Personnel (NOTAM) Bulletin and the Navigational Warning to Mariners. Upcoming rocket firing will take place on July 14, 19, 21, 26 and 28.
Based on this information, it can be assumed that the offensive actions of government forces in Syria are moving to the next active phase.
A new strike with "Caliber" - what is its meaning?
Until now, the Mediterranean Sea area indicated in the NOTAM warning has been used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles from the Russian frigates Admiral Essen, Admiral Grigorovich and from the Krasnodar submarine. The last time such a strike was carried out on June 23, 2017, when, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Kalibr destroyed command posts and weapons depots of Islamist militants in the Syrian province of Hama.
The use of all types of available and permitted weapons by the Russian Aerospace Forces has already become a "calling card" of the Syrian conflict. Sometimes, in the case of strikes against disparate groups and formations of militants, the use of high-tech weapons, such as Caliber or Kh-101 missiles, may look disproportionate, but it is through the use of high-precision and at the same time sufficiently powerful weapons that it is possible to reduce losses among the civilian population, aiming a retaliatory strike precisely at the jihadists.
The result of this approach is obvious - it is enough to compare the consequences of the assaults on Syrian Aleppo and Iraqi Mosul. The first of the cities, in the storming of which the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Syrian and allied armed forces took part, has already been liberated from militants and is, albeit in a damaged, but fairly intact condition. The assault on Iraqi Mosul, despite the constant assurances of the Iraqi and American media, has not yet come to an end.
About a hundred militants hold a tiny, but important quarter of Mosul, located in the strategic center of the Old City. During this time, most of Mosul was reduced to rubble by the US Air Force and Iraqi artillery. According to some estimates, about 50,000 civilians in Mosul became victims of the siege and assault, and about 1 million more residents of the city were forced refugees. This is the result of two siege operations that began almost simultaneously and took place under similar conditions.
New missile launches of the Navy: Russia moves the Syrian party to the endgamePr Scr youtube.com / Press Service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Syrian endgame
The busy schedule of Caliber launches shows that the ground operations of the Syrian army and its allies, with the close support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, are entering an active phase. Today, the main loser in the battle for Syria and Iraq is the Islamic State* (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Significant territories in eastern Syria and western Iraq still remain under the control of IS *, however, in general, the positions of the ISIS look bleak. The pseudo-state conglomerate of Islamist radicals no longer has the strength to defend the territory seized in 2014-15, and they are forced to roll back to their “territory of survival”, located in the region of the East Syrian city of Abu Kemal.
Today, the black-colored territories on the maps, formally under the control of the IS, no longer have a strategic value. The war in Syria has moved to its eastern, desert part, where the critical moment is control over communications, and desert dunes and scorched wastelands do not really matter: in their deserted expanses, any large militant unit becomes a wonderful target for the same "Caliber" or X -101.
The last major stronghold holding back the advance of the army of Bashar al-Assad to the city of Deir ez-Zor, which spent three years in a heroic siege, is the large oasis of As-Sukhna, which is located in rugged hilly terrain and closes the direct road from Palmyra to the east. An alternative to the straightforward plan of deblockade of Deir ez-Zor is a flank attack on As-Sukhna, which can be delivered from the north, from the area of the recently liberated city of Resafa, located in the south of Raqqa province.
Photos from open sources
The keys to Syria's oil and gas rights now appear to have been handed over to Russia... a country that has been invited, in full compliance with international law, by the globally recognized Syrian government to fight ISIS.
Under a framework energy cooperation agreement signed at the end of January, Russia will now have exclusive rights to extract oil and gas from Syria.
Moreover, the agreement goes much further than that, including the possibility of repairing damaged drilling equipment and infrastructure, advisory support and training for a new generation of Syrian oil workers. However, the main international aspect and the main part of this event is the final and unconditional consolidation of Russian interests in the Middle East.
Before the start of the bloody civil war, Syrian oil production fluctuated around 380,000 barrels a day. It then declined for some time, after an all-time peak production of 677,000 barrels per day in 2002. And, although the Islamic State is supposed to be driven underground, current production is still at a disastrous level of 14-15,000 barrels per day.
As for gas, its production decreased to a lesser extent (it fell from 8 billion cubic meters per year to 3.5 billion cubic meters per year), due to its greater importance for the national economy. 90 percent of the gas produced in Syria was used to generate electricity (as opposed to oil, which was either processed domestically or exported), and in view of this, the government has made extra efforts (as the prospects of recovering the fields have become quite real) to be the first to return control of the gas fields .
If we say that whoever takes over the energy sector of Syria will receive deserted ruins, then this will be a clear embellishment of reality. The country's refineries, after their throughput has been halved from their pre-war level of 250,000 barrels a day, need a complete overhaul. This task will most likely be carried out by Iranian companies, in accordance with the agreements signed last September, which also include the reconstruction of the damaged Syrian energy system. However, it remains unclear whether this project will be developed, since Tehran was counting on the Iran-Venezuela-Syria consortium, which is not being implemented at the moment, and against the backdrop of the destruction of Venezuela, a new solution must be found. In any case, Tehran already got what it wanted in Syria, as Iran's Revolutionary Guards had already taken control of the telecommunications sector.
Russia is not the only country that could help Syria rebuild its oil and gas industry - as mentioned above, Iran could also have a hand in this. However, Iran already lacks the funds to invest heavily in infrastructure in Syria. He himself needs foreign help to launch new projects at home and solve problems exacerbated by aging infrastructure and rapidly growing demand. European companies are unlikely to be interested in Syria if the EU embargo is not lifted (valid until June 1, 2018). Since the end of large-scale hostilities in Syria has not triggered a regime change, and Bashar al-Assad remains the President of Syria, it would be surprising for Brussels not to extend the sanctions regime (the US will do so without any hesitation).
As for Moscow, it is not afraid of sanctions, it is already under European and American sanctions. With long-term goals in mind, she could even agree to significant spending to rebuild Syria's oil and gas industry - in 2015 the IMF estimated these costs at $27 billion, the current estimate is most likely somewhere between $35-40 billion. This includes the restoration and commissioning of all drilling equipment, pipelines, pumping stations, etc. In some areas, such as the predominantly Kurdish northern provinces with their heavy oil deposits, Moscow is unlikely to do so. It also remains unclear what will happen to areas (including Syria's largest oil field, Al Omar) that have been occupied by pro-Western militias rather than the Syrian army.
Unfortunately for Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS-A), which was forced to pull out of its 100,000 bpd Al Omar field due to a strict sanctions regime, Damascus appears determined to consolidate the energy sector under state oil company SPC. . Through political arm-twisting and political empowerment of the Kurds in a united Syria, this goal can be achieved; however, the problem of oil sales is as acute as the problem of its production.
Most Syrian oil exports went to Europe, partly because of its geographic proximity, partly because European companies Shell and Total (NYSE:TOT) were the largest players in the sector. This is not possible now as long as the EU ban on Syrian oil exports remains in place. So the new owner will have to find new market outlets, either by relying on neighboring countries like Turkey or Lebanon, or by finding buyers in Asia.
Interestingly, so far there has been little or no talk about which company will have to take on the hard work of bringing Syria's energy sector back to life. During the war years, only the tiny SoyuzNefteGaz ventured into Syria (and eventually abandoned it in 2015). Tatneft, a state-owned enterprise that develops Tatarstan's oil and gas fields, is an obvious candidate, since Syria (along with Libya, to its own detriment) was its first attempt at internationalization. Just as Tatneft was preparing to bring the Qishma oil field into production, a full-scale war broke out and the company was forced to abandon it. Tatneft, Russia's fifth largest producer, is interested in returning to Syria as soon as conditions permit. In addition, it is still unclear whether large state-owned firms (Rosneft, Gazpromneft) would like to join [Tatneft].
For Russia, the best (and more profitable) decision seems to be to take control of the gas fields. If stable prices can be secured, then stable domestic demand is guaranteed, as gas remains the dominant energy carrier for electricity generation. In addition, there are deposits like Zohr, Leviathan and Aphrodite on the Eastern Mediterranean continental shelf. Lebanon, whose sweetest stretches are between Zohr and Leviathan, is also moving slowly, step by step, to enjoy its alleged gas gifts.
The coastal potential of Syria, despite some seismic and geophysical reports from the work carried out in the late 2000s, is still shrouded in mystery, for the most part hints are heard that it is as great as the coastal potential of Israel, Egypt or Cyprus. Syria's potential offshore gas reserves are estimated at 24 TCf (700 billion cubic meters) by the US Geological Survey, more than doubling its total (including onshore) gas reserves, while Syria's offshore oil reserves are estimated at "only" 50 million. tons, i.e. one-sixth of its oil reserves are onshore.
Syria's proven reserves of 2.5 billion barrels (341 million tons) of oil and 10.1 TCf (285 billion cubic meters) of gas would seem meager compared to those of neighboring Iraq or allied Iran. Given that one-third of its reserves are very heavy, viscous oil, Damascus will have to sweeten the deal in order to attract big Russian names - companies that can really act, not just take risks. But also geopolitically, it could be a very reasonable move.
Russia was extremely interested in expanding its foothold in Iraqi Kurdistan (Rosneft, Gazpromneft), connecting to the offshore gas fields of Lebanon (NOVATEK), and, by and large, in Eastern Mediterranean affairs in general. For this, control over Syria's oil and gas industry could be a very powerful, non-military tool.
According to the framework agreement on energy cooperation signed at the end of January, Russia will receive the exclusive right to extract gas and oil in Syria.
The agreement goes far beyond agreements that describe the terms of cooperation in the field of repair and restoration of drilling rigs and production infrastructure. The Russians will also train a new generation of Syrian oil workers and provide energy consulting. Thanks to this step, Moscow will be able to strengthen its position in the Middle East.
Due to the ongoing war since 2011, the Syrian energy sector has fallen into disrepair. Local refineries are in need of a massive upgrade. Before the war, their capacity was 250 thousand barrels per day, now it has halved. As long as the embargo imposed by the EU is in effect, Syria cannot count on the support of European companies in Syria. Neither Brussels nor Washington will lift the ban on the import of Syrian hydrocarbons for political reasons: the military operations that have been going on for more than six years have not led to regime change, Bashar al-Assad remains in power, who is accused of using chemical weapons and other crimes.
Russia, Iran and Syria
Countries that could help the Syrians rebuild the oil and gas sector are Russia and Iran. According to agreements signed in September last year, Iranian companies were supposed to launch Syrian oil refineries and restore destroyed energy networks. The front of work is very large: it will be necessary to launch new projects on land and at sea, to upgrade outdated equipment. At the same time, it should be taken into account that domestic demand for hydrocarbons will grow, since additional energy capacities will be needed to restore the economy destroyed by the war. Obviously, without help from outside Syria, it will not be possible to quickly breathe new life into the mining sector.
Tehran counted on the emergence of an Iran-Venezuela-Syria consortium that could put these plans into practice, but due to the serious economic problems that have arisen in Caracas, other solutions will have to be found. At the moment, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has succeeded in achieving one of its goals - to take control of the Syrian telecommunications sector.
Russia, against which European and American sanctions continue to operate, is not afraid of restrictive measures: it has long since learned to successfully cope with them. The steps taken by the Kremlin indicate that it intends to achieve a dominant position in this part of the world. His long-term strategy appears to include rebuilding the Syrian oil and gas sector.
In 2015, the International Monetary Fund estimated that $27 billion would have to be spent on this goal, but according to the latest data, the figure has increased to $35-40 billion. This money will be needed to restore the entire infrastructure (pipelines, pumping stations, and so on), which can only be restarted after repairs have been made. For political reasons, the process will not affect the northern provinces occupied by the Syrian Kurds, where there are large oil fields. The future of deposits (including the largest one, Al-Omar) in territories controlled by forces that enjoy the support of the West, and not the Syrian army, also remains unclear.
Who will produce oil and gas in Syria?
It is still unknown which Russian company will be involved in the restoration of the Syrian energy sector. In the first four years of the war, Soyuzneftegaz worked in Syria, but in 2015 he decided to leave this country. Another candidate is Tatneft, which develops oil and gas fields in Tatarstan. Syria was one of the first countries where this Russian company tried its hand at the international market, so when favorable conditions appear, it will want to return there. In addition, there are chances that such state giants as Rosneft and Gazpromneft will decide to join their competitor.
In 2002, Syria produced 677,000 barrels of oil per day. Before the start of the civil war, this figure was 380 thousand barrels, and now it has fallen to a level of 14-15 thousand barrels. The decline in gas production was not as significant due to the important role that this raw material plays in the Syrian economy: 90% of the blue gold mined in the country is used to generate electricity. In the pre-war period, the volume of production reached 8 billion cubic meters per year, now it is 3.5 billion cubic meters.
Before the war, Syrian oil was mainly exported to Europe, this was facilitated by the country's geographical location and the fact that European companies such as Shell and Total were the main players in this sector of the Syrian economy. Since the European ban on the supply of Syrian oil continues to operate, the new owner of the production infrastructure will have to find new markets for Syrian hydrocarbons. In this context, it seems logical to focus on the countries of the region: Turkey or Lebanon.
From an economic point of view, it is more profitable for Russia to take control of gas fields. Gas is the main raw material for electricity production in Syria, which means that demand for it in the domestic market will remain stable. In addition, there is a high probability that there is a field on the Syrian continental shelf in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that is not inferior in terms of reserves to the Zohr, Leviathan and Aphrodite fields.
The goal is a dominant position in the region
Moscow is seeking to consolidate its position in Southwest Asia. Rosneft and Gazprom Neft are operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, while Novatek is producing offshore gas in the eastern countries of the Mediterranean Sea. Oil and gas are not only energy resources. First of all, they are needed by the chemical industry for the manufacture of ubiquitous plastics, lubricants, pesticides, medicines, as well as for obtaining a variety of substances necessary for the production of other materials and products, including chemical fertilizers. Modern man cannot imagine life without all this.
If Russia manages to take control of the Syrian fields, it will receive a non-military instrument of influence on international politics and will be able to influence OPEC more effectively. The Kremlin is ready to direct a lot of resources, both financial, intellectual and human, to satisfy its geopolitical ambitions.
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